Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
